2019 is the year of the wild boar. There’s an euphemism that describes the year of the boar as “solidifying”, a preparation period for the stock market quotations to advance into its next stages to plant the seeds and welcome prosperity in the year of the rat. Don’t get confused with the reckless charging boar in the Japanese proverb ‘chototsumoshin’.
In 2018, the average price of the Nikkei was as high as 24,270 yen (Oct. 2), and the lowest at 19,915 yen (Dec.25) in which that day, known as the "Christmas Shock" took a huge plunge. The US-China trade wars and rising US interest rates are considered to be the cause of the stock price crash, but the actual reasons are unknown. The profit of 225 stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average is an overkill, and some optimists believe that the "Christmas Shock" was a good adjustment. Ever since Dec. 2012 with the start of the second Abe administration, the market price rise continued for six years with many believing that the rise will be over soon. In any case, the Nikkei 225 average price is likely to continue for 20,000 yen against the New York Dow average stock price. On that note, take a look at the schedule of 2019: April 1 will be the announcement of Japan’s next imperial era name, May 1 will be the era name in effect, May will also have a 10 day consecutive holiday, July will have its upper house elections, and the start of October 1 is the implement of the 10% consumption tax. Not to mention Japan’s competition in the Rugby 2019 W Cup from Sept. 20 to Nov. 2. The only negative news so far is the rise of consumption taxes. My guess is that the average Nikkei stock price will change between 17,000 yen and 21,000 yen, and perhaps, lower.